Advancing Regional-Scale Coastal Erosion Modelling

A recent paper—developed in collaboration with Deakin University and University of Melbourne — introduces significant advances to how we model coastal erosion under sea level rise.

Coastal recession is often driven by the availability of onshore space for beaches to retreat, yet many large-scale models overlook how coastal morphology—like dunes, cliffs, or seawalls—shapes that process.

In this work, we present a major upgrade to ShoreTrans, a shoreface translation model that simulates shoreline change under sea level rise and sediment budget conditions. 

We applied the model to 2,000 km of Victoria’s coastline, using a 1 m sea level rise scenario from 2010 to 2100, supported by satellite-derived shoreline data.

🔎 Key insights:

• Mean projected shoreline recession: 43 m, around 20% less than simpler models due to better representation of sediment processes and hard backshores

• Low dunes show the greatest retreat (up to 68 m), with setback zones exceeding 182 m in some areas

• Cliffs and seawalls fronting beaches are projected to lose up to 55–80% of beach area

• Sediment-poor rocky coasts, such as the Great Ocean Road Surf Coast, may see 30–50% beach loss, even before accounting for built infrastructure or adaptation

This work demonstrates how automated, morphology-aware modelling can improve long-term coastal change projections—critical for managing future risk and informing adaptation strategies.

Read the full paper here: https://lnkd.in/d8KH7zfx